Malaysia Airlines MH370 B777-200 Missing (239 onboard) Update: debris found off Mozambique and on South African beaches

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What do you think really happened to MH370?

Pilot suicide
6
30%
On-board fire or technical fault
4
20%
Hijacking gone wrong
0
No votes
Something sinister
10
50%
Other
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 20

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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 B777-200 Missing (239 onboard) Update: debris found off Mozambique and on South African beac

#181

Post by Moertoe Pilut » Wed Apr 20, 2016 10:26 pm

Looks like the airplane was indeed ditched by the looks of the debris recovered....


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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 B777-200 Missing (239 onboard) Update: debris found off Mozambique and on South African beac

#182

Post by bmused55 » Thu Apr 21, 2016 3:41 pm

Called it on both parts! In that they were part of 9M-MRO I mean. The flat track fairing was obvious. I had wondered where the flat piece had come from.



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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 B777-200 Missing (239 onboard) Update: debris found off Mozambique and on South African beac

#183

Post by Propnut » Fri Jun 10, 2016 7:51 am

This accident has gone very quiet of late, not even old King Neptune offering up evidence.



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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 B777-200 Missing (239 onboard) Update: debris found off Mozambique and on South African beac

#184

Post by Raffles » Fri Jun 10, 2016 9:48 am

Propnut wrote:This accident has gone very quiet of late, not even old King Neptune offering up evidence.


They intend ending the search pretty soon. But someone out there knows exactly where it is, just saying.



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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 B777-200 Missing (239 onboard) Update: debris found off Mozambique and on South African beac

#185

Post by Joeatc » Fri Jun 10, 2016 5:37 pm

Weren't there some more parts found on Madagascar today?



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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 B777-200 Missing (239 onboard) Update: debris found off Mozambique and on South African beac

#186

Post by Bell 407 » Fri Jun 10, 2016 5:50 pm

Joeatc wrote:Weren't there some more parts found on Madagascar today?

Yes indeed here.



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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 B777-200 Missing (239 onboard) Update: debris found off Mozambique and on South African beac

#187

Post by Moertoe Pilut » Sat Jun 11, 2016 1:14 pm

Interesting read from Edward Baker:

TUESDAY, JUNE 7, 2016
MH370: An Important Change in Protocol—A Clue?
I've been following the events swirling around MH370 from day one. I was leaving on a trip to Constanta, Romania, when the news flash came across. I arrived in the hotel room after an 11 hour flight, and had TV on during my stay, following the unhappy story.

Of course I later found my voice in the Twitterverse, and love me or hate me, I have always tried to be a voice of calm and reason—all the while trying to be polite to my detractors (I do have a few). I bring years of Boeing experience into the discussion, and have spent many years in the professional airline world, as I continue to do.

With that as a backdrop, there's always been something nagging at me about the little we do know about MH370, the timeline, and her pilots. Something I could not put a finger on...something just seemed...so...so out of place.

I needed to dig deeper.

Pilots generally have the same quirks and voice mannerisms. We will often have the same "uhs" or inflections. We also rarely switch roles when it comes to radio work. The FO (there are exceptions, but that does not apply here) picks up the ATC clearance, and in the vernacular "works the radio" on the ground. Once airborne, whoever is not flying works the radio while the other pilot flies.

That in mind, when MH370 gets the clearance, it is the FO who speaks first (all times are UTC, and from the Factual Information report):

16:25:52 Fariq Hamid picks up his clearance to Beijing. He does not have an "uuuh" between Malaysian and 370. He somewhat stretches the "zerooo" but not too distinctly.

16:27:31 Fariq once again is on the radio, and with his distinctive lack of an "uuuh" requests a clearance for push back and start. It's virtually always the FO's job. Tonight is no different.

16:40:40 We hear Fariq accept the takeoff clearance. That's a little non-standard for my Western sensibilities. Much of the time the pilot who is not flying takes this radio call, but not always. In the industry, this role is called the "pilot monitoring". The other role, inventively, is the "pilot flying."

16:42:50 For the first time, we hear Captain Zaharie Shah talk. He has a distinctive "Malaysian...aaah...three seven zero" cadence. It's different. It's not Fariq. In fact, in the FI report, the transcription dutifully adds the "aaa" which was missing from the earlier transcripts with Fariq.

What this means to me is that Zaharie is now taking the role of pilot monitoring, and Fariq is the pilot flying. I would expect to hear mostly Z talking from here on out.

16:46:42 As custom dictates, Zaharie takes the handoff to Lumpur Radar. The flight is on the way, and the captain is not flying the airplane.

16:50:08 ATC clears MH370 to climb and maintain flight level 350. Zaharie accepts this clearance.

17:01:17 Zaharie checks in at level 350. This is standard stuff. He's verifying that the previously issued clearance has been reached. I often don't bother with this report myself, unless specifically asked. It's not wrong to report it either. Let's call it a discretionary report.
NOTE: The FI report has the transcription slightly wrong. The transcript has it as "Malaysian aaa three seven zero maintaining flight level three five zero." What he actually says is "[...] maintaining level three five zero" (he does not use the word "flight").
17:07:48 the Aircraft Communications and Addressing System (ACARS) makes its last transmission and goes silent.

17:07:56 Z inexplicably reports his altitude again. Or was it Z? The voice pattern has changed. I swear it actually could be Fariq's voice. I can't pick up on the "aaa" It seems different. It's also odd because the previous report was given six minutes earlier, and there was no change in altitude, nor an apparent request to report the altitude. Something's different.

17:19:30 We hear the well-known "Good night, Malaysian aaa three seven zero" I noticed that the transcript does not record the "aaa" as it has been, but it's there.

Z's was the last voice we hear. Of that, there's no doubt.

17:21:13 Less than two minutes after Z's last transmission, the transponder stops reporting MH370's unique ATC-assigned code, and information drops from ATC radar screens. Military radar shows a hard left turn occurring at this time.

I had to resolve who the hell was talking 12 minutes before the final sign-off. Was it Z or Fariq?

I have some professional audio software that I ran the clip through. I concentrated on the "three seven zero maintaining level three five zero" which was clearly common between the call at 1707:56 and 17:19:30. The cadence is perfect. The time to say the phrase matches perfectly. I listened to it over and over.

It was Z.

So there's no doubt in my mind that Zaharie made the last call. He also made an oddly placed call just eight seconds after the ACARs last communication. That places him in the cockpit right before MH370 disappeared. But was he alone? We can't know based on ATC transmissions.

But here's the thing. WHY was he even talking on the radio? He actually should have been flying if normal protocols are being followed. At least, that's the way it should have been.

A little backdrop.

Fariq Hamid was being checked out as a B777 first officer. Captain Zaharie Shah was assigned as a check airman who would be assessing Fariq on his final training flight. Fariq was to receive his final evaluation on his next scheduled flight (Source: Factual Information, pg 14).

I confess to having no knowledge how MAS culture works with training flights, but if they follow Western-style culture, the training flights alternate flying duties and monitoring duties. In general terms, the check airman assigned to train a pilot will take the first leg of the journey. They often also like to fly the legs that are not involving landing on home turf...in other words, flying back to your home base is boring.

There's another reason check airmen normally fly the first leg. They want to show the newbie who's boss. It's an Alpha-male (or Alpha-female) thing where the check airman says, in effect, I fly better than you...I'm going to prove it by setting the standard on our first leg...I'll set the gold standard for you to follow.

They also want to get a chance to see how the new pilot performs and works in the cockpit. It's a rare check airman who lets the newbie fly first. It's just the way it is. At least in Western cockpits. I suspect that's probably true in Pacific Rim airlines.

So why the hell is Z even on the radios? He made it a choice not to fly that leg. Why?

***Conjecture alert. I'm just guessing here***

[Edit/addition based on some comments on this post] A poster suggested that Z might have flown first so that he had time to make changes to the Flight Management System (FMS). As the pilot monitoring, anything he might be doing with respect to "the box" would not seem out of place. That seems plausible to me.

I think it also comes down to a bit of compassion. IF Z was behind all this, he basically took some professional pity on Fariq, and at least let him fly for a bit. Even if Fariq did not know this was his final flight, Z knew.

How did Z wind up in the cockpit by himself? Simple. He would only have to order Fariq out under the guise of some instruction—get me some tea, for example.

With the sudden and inexplicable change in the flight path, there's no way that Fariq would have been docile and subservient. Fariq certainly was not flying. Fariq was new to the airplane, and was in the presence of a check airman. This was not a young pilot who was going to go rogue at that time. The ACARS shenanigans happened while Z was in the cockpit. The transponder went off line in less than 2 minutes while Z was demonstrably in the cockpit.

All of this happened precisely in the middle of a handoff between two countries. It could not have been more precisely timed. It was planned and well-executed by someone who was in the cockpit, by someone who was intimately knowledgable about the B777.

[Edit/addition based on a comment to this post] A really insightful poster suggested that the oddly timed altitude report was made to encourage a handoff to HCM. That's a little early to attempt that (MH370 was more than 50 miles from the ATC boundary at that point), but it is a very real possibility. For those unfamiliar with the concept, sometimes air traffic controllers simply forget about you. When you've passed a point where you'd expect a handoff, it's normal to say something to call attention back on yourself. I found a nifty trick is to hit a button on the transponder (the "Ident" button) which brightens up your data on their screen. It calls attention to you. Works nearly every time—hit that button, get a handoff.

Z's unsolicited altitude report 50 miles from boundary with HCM might have been just that. A way to get attention to MH30, and encourage an early handoff. Seems like a plausible thing,

My additional guess is that the oddly placed altitude report concurrent with the ACARS last communications was about the time Fariq was ordered out of the cockpit. He had to have been ordered out of the cockpit at some point. Perhaps Z was a bit rattled by his own actions, and for some reason reaffirmed his altitude unnecessarily. Pure conjecture, obviously—but if Z did indeed fly the aircraft into oblivion, Fariq would have been ordered out of the cockpit sometime after level off, and well before the transponder was disabled.

My nagging sense of something being out of place turns out to be that Z was not flying to begin with. It was also the odd second altitude report call. I'm satisfied with my research that it was indeed Zaharie making the last radio calls, placing him in the cockpit before MH370 disappeared.

The military radar did, however, capture the radar signature of MH370 passing near Penang...the boyhood home of Captain Zaharie Shah.



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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 B777-200 Missing (239 onboard) Update: debris found off Mozambique and on South African beac

#188

Post by happyskipper » Sat Jun 11, 2016 1:32 pm

Interesting theories there!



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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 B777-200 Missing (239 onboard) Update: debris found off Mozambique and on South African beac

#189

Post by Raffles » Sat Jun 11, 2016 11:46 pm

I personally think there was something more sinister than that. Someone knows exactly where the plane is.



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Exclusive: MH370 Pilot Flew a Suicide Route on His Home Simulator Closely Matching Final Flight

#190

Post by Raffles » Sat Jul 23, 2016 10:43 pm

New York has obtained a confidential document from the Malaysian police investigation into the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 that shows that the plane’s captain, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, conducted a simulated flight deep into the remote southern Indian Ocean less than a month before the plane vanished under uncannily similar circumstances.


NY mag


Why would he need to practice flying the route? It doesn't make sense unless he was a loony.



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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 B777-200 Missing (239 onboard) Update: debris found off Mozambique and on South African beac

#191

Post by happyskipper » Sat Jul 23, 2016 10:58 pm

He had all the equipment - and maybe wanted to do a trial run with his sim to see how it would feel?
The 1st thing I did after 911 was fly a B767 into the WTC on FS2000, to see whether it was that difficult......

As to whether he was a loon or not - I guess time will tell! :dunno1:



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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 B777-200 Missing (239 onboard) Update: debris found off Mozambique and on South African beac

#192

Post by Moertoe Pilut » Sun Jul 24, 2016 7:19 pm

I can't see why the FBI would be involved. The Malaysian chief of police is denying that FBI was ever involved. The only US agency that would be involved would maybe be the NTSB.



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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 B777-200 Missing (239 onboard) Update: debris found off Mozambique and on South African beac

#193

Post by four engine jock » Mon Jul 25, 2016 1:36 pm

Any time there is a crime involving a US citizen abroad, the FBI always gets involved. Mostly to get info and advise.



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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 B777-200 Missing (239 onboard) Update: debris found off Mozambique and on South African beac

#194

Post by Bell 407 » Tue Aug 09, 2016 10:29 am

MH370 plunged into ocean at high speed - report

Sydney - Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 plunged into the ocean at high speed - up to 20 000 feet a minute - reinforcing analysis that the missing jet crashed in the current search zone, a report said on Tuesday.

The Boeing 777 disappeared on March 8, 2014 en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing with 239 people onboard.

An extensive underwater hunt in the southern Indian Ocean has not yet found the crash site, fuelling speculation it may be outside the current search zone, particularly if someone was at the controls at the end of the flight.

A manned plane could have been glided down, allowing it to enter the water outside the 120 000 square kilometre area being searched, some experts have suggested.

But extensive testing by aircraft manufacturer Boeing and new Australian defence department data analysis both suggest that - regardless of the possible actions of one or both of the pilots - the jet dived into the ocean at high speed, The Australian reported.

Sharp dive

Once MH370 ran out of fuel and the engines flamed, it slowed before plunging down towards the water in a series of swoops - dropping from 35 000 feet at a rate of between 12 000 feet a minute and 20 000 feet a minute, Boeing said, according to the report.

The sharp dive was confirmed by a new data analysis by Australia's defence department involving signals sent automatically between the plane and a satellite, the head of the agency leading the MH370 hunt said.

Australian Transport and Safety Bureau chief Greg Hood said this supported the view MH370 "was likely to have crashed in the 120 000 square kilometre area now being searched," the paper said.

The area was defined under the ATSB's "most likely" scenario that no-one was at the controls and the plane ran out of fuel.

"The Australians leading the search do not doubt that the pilot may well have been responsible for the jet's disappearance but they say critics of the search strategy are wrong to assume that means they are looking in the wrong place," the report added.

Malaysian officials said last week that one of the pilots used a homemade flight simulator to plot a very similar course to MH370's presumed final route, but warned this did not prove he deliberately crashed the plane.

News24



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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 B777-200 Missing (239 onboard) Update: debris found off Mozambique and on South African beac

#195

Post by Propnut » Tue Aug 09, 2016 11:53 am

Where there is smoke there is always a fire.



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Expert on MH370 Disappearance: 'There Is Absolutely No Mystery To What Happened'

#196

Post by Richard Cranium » Sun Aug 14, 2016 5:30 pm

Expert on MH370 Disappearance: 'There Is Absolutely No Mystery To What Happened'

Interview Conducted by Marco Evers
Image
Investigators examine a piece of aircraft debris believed to be an outboard wing flap belonging to Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370.

Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 mysteriously disappeared from radar screens just over two years ago. Now veteran flight-accident investigator Larry Vance believes he knows what happened. He believes one of the pilots hijacked the aircraft.

Larry Vance, 67, a Canadian flight accident investigator, has worked on more than 200 airplane crashes, including that of Swissair Flight 111, an MD-11 aircraft that crashed off the Canadian coast in 1998, killing all 229 people on board. Vance concluded the four-year-investigation with a report detailing how a fire had started inside a cockpit panel, probably due to some faulty wiring. Since retiring from Canada's Transport Safety Board in 2009, he started a career as an independent investigation consultant, and also teaches accident investigator courses worldwide. Now Vance has focused his attention on the mysterious disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, which had been en route to Beijing on March 8, 2014 when it vanished from radar screens.


SPIEGEL: The search for the missing Malaysian airliner will soon be abandoned and no trace of the wreck has been found. Although you weren't part of the investigation team, you claim to know exactly what happened to MH370. Isn't that a bit presumptuous?

Vance: In over 30 years on the job, I have learned how to read evidence from the parts that are available. The evidence here is pretty definitive.

SPIEGEL: Only a handful of pieces of MH370 has been found. How can that be enough to reconstruct what happened?

Vance: A flaperon, found last year, has been confirmed as coming from MH370. And a piece of flap that showed up in June will doubtless be confirmed as coming from MH370. Those two pieces are wreckage -- and wreckage can be studied for clues.

SPIEGEL: What do they tell you?

Vance: Flaperons and flaps are high-lift devices. Pilots deploy them when they need to fly at lower speeds during the final stage of the flight. The photos clearly show that the trailing edges of these devices are severely damaged whereas the leading edges are virtually unharmed. This is an extremely significant piece of information.

SPIEGEL: Why?

Vance: There is simply no other conclusion you can make: The flaps were extended when the aircraft hit the water. The trailing edge was dragged over water for some time -- some seconds -- to erode the trailing edges of those pieces. This evidence is easy to read. The pressure from being dragged through the water exceeded the structural strength of the attachment points of those pieces. They flew off, fell back in the water and presented themselves in the state they are in.

SPIEGEL: Assuming the flaps were extended -- what exactly would that prove?

Vance: A lot. Hydraulics and electrics must have been available. One engine at least must have been running. The airplane did not run out of fuel as is often said. And most importantly: The flaps were selected that way. Somebody in the cockpit did that.

SPIEGEL: Couldn't they have been deployed automatically?

Vance: No. Somebody pushed the lever, there is no other way to move the flaps. Somebody wanted that airplane to land on the surface of the ocean in such a way that the fuselage stayed intact, so that everything would go to the bottom, never to be found or seen again. All this talk of this being aviation's biggest mystery makes me angry. There is absolutely no mystery to what happened. It's a mystery why somebody would do this.

SPIEGEL: Could this somebody be a hijacker who took over the cockpit?

Vance: Impossible. In order to land a Boeing 777 on a choppy ocean you need to be a seasoned pilot.

SPIEGEL: Australian investigators have confirmed that Zaharie Shah, the captain of Flight MH370, had plotted a very similar course into the southern Indian Ocean on his home simulator. He did this weeks before that flight. Is this conclusive proof?

Vance: It fits the story.

SPIEGEL: Would that make MH370 a precursor incident to Germanwings Flight 9525 which was deliberately crashed into the French Alps by a suicidal co-pilot barely a year later?

Vance: I can't comment on that. I do flaps and stuff. I don't do criminal investigations or psychiatric evaluations.

SPIEGEL: The Australian investigators have been working under the assumption that the plane was pilotless, at least at the end. Have they been wrong?

Vance: They started off with the little information they initially had, for example data from the satellite that was sporadically in touch with MH370. They did the very best they could. I wouldn't know what I would have done differently. I have great respect for them.

SPIEGEL: But the satellite data tells a very different story than yours, and suggests that the plane's fuel tanks were empty.

Vance: The physical evidence is much more demonstrative than satellite data, which always leave room for interpretation. In accident investigation, you take the hard evidence and ask yourself: How does this other stuff fit in? In the end, it will fit, even if you struggle for a while with contradictory information from different sources. When the flaperon pictures became available, my colleagues and I knew within seconds what happened. I'd even say everybody in the business knows.

SPIEGEL: Were the passengers alive when the airplane touched down?

Vance: There is no way to know that. But my educated guess would be: No, the people died very early in the sequence, soon after the transponder was turned off. They were probably killed by apoxia which was induced by someone from within the cockpit.

SPIEGEL: Here's a different scenario: A fire starts. The plane turns back towards the airport. Pilots and passengers lose consciousness. The airplane flies automatically until fuel runs out.

Vance: Believe me, I went across all possible scenarios. If you have a fire on board, you have basically 20 minutes or less before the aircraft is on the ground one way or the other. MH370 flew for seven hours or longer. I have seen the evidence from Swissair Flight 111 and I can tell you that MH370 simply did not strip the water in an uncontrolled state at high speed. The Swissair's debris field was 2 million pieces. I looked at most of them. You wouldn't find a single piece that has the same damage pattern as the MH370 flaperon.

SPIEGEL: Should the search for the wreckage continue?


Vance: Do I think they should have tried it? Absolutely. I would have done exactly the same thing. But it is extremely difficult to pinpoint a location if all you have is a theory. If you have no reasonable explanation for where you are looking, what's the point of just looking?

SPIEGEL: Do you expect further wreckage to be found?

Vance: I would not be surprised if a piece of a passenger or cargo door would make it to shore one day. Or maybe parts of the tail. I would not be surprised to see a minimal number of pieces from inside the fuselage. But in my opinion, that fuselage is in one piece on the bottom of the ocean. And everything that was inside the pressure vessel is still right there.



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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 B777-200 Missing (239 onboard) Update: debris found off Mozambique and on South African beac

#197

Post by Raffles » Sun Aug 14, 2016 7:11 pm

Except that one piece that they found had damage similar to what would be sustained in a break-up



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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 B777-200 Missing (239 onboard) Update: debris found off Mozambique and on South African beac

#198

Post by happyskipper » Sat Aug 27, 2016 8:52 am

What looks like another piece of debris from the MH 370 B777 has been pulled from the ocean on Mozambiques coast.
These pics show what could be a piece of the tail of MH 370 - found at a place called Morrumbene between Inhambane and Vilankulo, it is an area where the South - flowing Mozambique current comes close inshore.

Image



Image



Image



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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 B777-200 Missing (239 onboard) Update: debris found off Mozambique and on South African beac

#199

Post by Bell 407 » Sat Aug 27, 2016 8:56 am

That's an excellent match for the tail section. So many pieces now found but we can't find the damn airplane :thinking:



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Re: Malaysia Airlines MH370 B777-200 Missing (239 onboard) Update: debris found off Mozambique and on South African beac

#200

Post by Moertoe Pilut » Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:51 am

happyskipper wrote:What looks like another piece of debris from the MH 370 B777 has been pulled from the ocean on Mozambiques coast.
Did it wash up on shore or was it floating around?



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